Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
