Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
